Global warming and the collapse of the French Guiana shrimp fishery
Résumé
This paper studies the biological and economic effects of global
warming on the French Guiana shrimp
fishery. The sea surface tem-
perature is explicitly introduced into four natural growth functions,
among which the Cobb-Douglas function best adjusts the available
data. Besides, a Cobb-Douglas harvest function is also estimated, in-
dicating that shrimp production in French Guiana is highly sensitive to
the shrimp stock, which implies that global warming may have strong
economic implications. We
nally consider a centralized resource man-
agement of the French Guiana shrimp
shery, that is undertaken in
various trend scenarios concerning the sea surface temperature. Un-
der the most plausible scenario, in which the sea surface temperature
follows the trend of the last decades, pro
ts and biomass respectively
decrease and collapse around the end of the 2020s.
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